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Advanced Agile Metrics, Forecasting & Predictability Workshop

Advanced Agile Metrics, Forecasting & Predictability

Our Advance Agile Metrics, Forecasting & Predictability gives you everything you need to read your data and provide answers for your stakeholders.

“When will it be done?” “How many items will I get in the next release?” “When will all of the items in the backlog be completed?”

Those are some of the first questions that your customers will ask you once you start work for them. This hands-on workshop provides you with the tools you need to answer those questions predictably. In this tutorial, attendees will learn what metrics are necessary for accurate forecasting, how to visualize those metrics in appropriate analytics, how to use those analytics make reliable forecasts and understand risk, and, finally, how to make meaningful interventions for overall process improvement.

Summary

  • Duration: 2 days
  • Certification: None.
  • Frequency: 3 public courses a year
  • Public Course Locations: London and Dublin
  • Private Courses Available: Yes
  • Languages: English or Spanish
  • Payment Formats: Credit Card, TransferWise, Paypal or by Invoice
  • Payment Currencies: GBP, EUR or USD
  • Contact: education@actineo.email
  • What’s included:
    • Slides as PDF format
    • eBook of Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability by Daniel Vacanti
    • Lunch on both days
    • Access to the Actineo Newsletter
    • Access to the Actineo Slack channel
    • Membership of the Actineo Alumni Network including 20% discount on future courses
    • Trial account for Actionable Agile

Syllabus and Agenda

Learning Outcomes

  • An understanding of what Lean-Agile metrics are necessary for predictability.
  • An ability to make accurate forecasts for single items including how to forecast when an individual story, epic, or feature will be done.
  • An ability to make accurate forecasts for multiple items including how to know when all items remaining in a backlog will be done or an ability to project how many items will be completed by a given release date and the risks associated with each.
  • An understanding of how to use flow metrics and analytics to achieve a stable process including an understanding of why a stable process is necessary for accurate forecasting.

Topic Areas

  • Flow Metrics: a deep dive into WIP, Cycle Time, and Throughput—including why you need to track them, how they are related through Little’s Law, and why they are important for forecasting.
  • Flow Analytics: an introduction to Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs), Scatterplots, Histograms, and other supporting charts—including a detailed discussion of what they are, how to generate them correctly, and how to utilize them for better predictability.
  • Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation: how to use flow metrics to answer “When will it be done?”—including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and statistical sampling methods for forecasting (no advanced mathematics required!).
  • Quantifying Risk and Risk Management: how an understanding of risk is crucial to developing accurate forecasts—including how to quantify risk in the different analytics’ charts and how changing forecast inputs can help to develop an overall risk profile.
  • How to Get Started: how to immediately apply these techniques to your current project or process to achieve the results you are looking for—including what data to collect, how to mine your data, and how much data you need to begin.

This workshop will be split into the following parts with several hands-on exercises throughout.

Day One – The Basics of Forecasting

  • What is Predictability?
  • What Data Should We Collect?
  • Forecasts for Single Items Using Cycle Time
    • What is Cycle Time and Why It Is Important
    • Traditional Single Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
    • Cycle Time Scatterplots and Forecasting
    • How to Quantify Single Item Forecast Risk (Percentiles and SLAs)
    • Improving Your Single Item Forecasts
  • Forecasts for Multiple Items Using Throughput and Monte Carlo Simulation
    • What is Throughput and Why It Is Important
    • Traditional Multiple Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail
    • Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Sampling Methods
    • How to Answer “How Many Items by X date?”
    • How to Answer “How Long to Complete Y Number of Items?”
    • How to Quantify Multiple Item Forecast Risk
    • Improving Your Multiple Item Forecasts
  • How to Know If You Can Trust Your Forecasts
    • Work in Progress and Little’s Law
    • Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs)
    • CFDs and System Stability

Day Two – Advanced Topics in Predictability

  • Pull Policies
  • Little’s Law Deep Dive
  • Flow Debt
  • How Do I Know When Something Should Start?
    • Traditional Planning Techniques and Why They Fail.
    • An Introduction to Cost of Delay.
    • Weighted Shortest Job First
    • Cost of Delay Divided by Duration
    • Monte Carlo Simulation and Cost of Delay
  • How to Get Started
    • Topics in Data Mining
    • Things to Watch Out For
  • Parking Lot / Q & A

Prerequisites

You should have completed the Kanban Systems Design (KMP1) course or have an equivalent level of experience or understanding.

Audience

  • Anyone who has been asked to answer “When Will It Be Done?” or otherwise had to give an estimate for a User Story, Epic, Feature, Project, and/or Release
  • Executives, managers, or team members who want better understanding and transparency into the health and performance of their process
  • Anyone who currently uses Agile or Lean Methodologies and is interested in how to improve the overall predictability and efficiency of their current practices

Course Calendar

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